Cricket Toss Predictions and Betting Strategies

The best cricket betting sites around are well aware of the importance the coin toss carries in a cricket match, with almost all of them offering odds for this event. In this article, we shall go over the history of the toss and its advantages, along with some of the best toss prediction strategies.

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  • Coin toss odds usually ~ 1.91
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What Is the Cricket Toss?

The cricket toss is a time-honoured tradition of this game marked by a coin flip in the air. The visiting captain predicts the coin toss result and the winning captain gets to choose which of the teams will bat first.

The coin toss is also a part of the first Laws of Cricket that were written by the founders of the present-day Marylebone Cricket Club (MCC) in 1744. The MCC, popularly known as the Lord’s stadium, has continued to remain the custodian of these laws.

Top Bookmakers’ Toss Prediction Odds – Compared

Below, we’ve taken a look at the odds that some of the best cricket betting sites typically offer for the toss prediction market.

While the difference is minor, if you envision yourself betting on this market consistently, it obviously makes more sense to go with the bookies offering the most competitive prices.

Betting Sites Odds
Unibet logo 1.91
bet365 logo 1.90
betway logo 1.90
Parimatch logo 1.90
1xbet logo 1.86
Melbet logo 1.86
10cric logo 1.82

When Does It Take Place?

The coin toss marks the beginning of every cricket match and takes place half an hour before the game is scheduled to begin. Believe it or not, millions of true cricket followers consider the toss event, and not the first ball of the over, as the commencement of play. No wonder the toss prediction market is the most active betting markets worldwide!

Best Toss Prediction Strategy

As cricket bettors, you must ensure that your betting strategies cover the element of toss predictions too. While the result of who will win the toss today cannot be predicted, you can try and guess what the captain might choose if they win the toss.

You must pay close attention to the toss event as it is important in deciding the match outcome, and because it is one of the top cricket betting markets in terms of popularity and payout potential.

A lot of cricket knowledge and quick thinking is needed to strategise how captains may act if they win the toss. Here are some effective tips on how to make coin toss predictions and make the most of your time while betting on this market:

Pay attention to the squad sheets

The captains exchange their squad sheets right before the toss where the final team lineup is declared. The team lineup reveals the intent and mindset with which the team is approaching the game.

Factors like the number of spinners, all-rounders, pacers, and who is the opening batsmen, are some details mentioned on the squad sheet. Experienced bettors use this knowledge to gauge the strategy of the team and, in turn, make their ‘toss prediction for today’s match’ verdict.

Captain’s call

You can make toss predictions by anticipating the general behaviour of captains during their previous toss decisions on the same pitch or against the same team, and consequently place your bets.

There are also captains who will always opt to bat or bowl no matter what the pitch conditions or opponent’s lineup. You can accordingly make bets on their selection if they win the toss.

What Is the House Edge in Toss Predictions?

House edge is a term one typically associates with casino gambling, and rightly so. However, it’s not something alien to sports betting, albeit not as widely discussed.

House edge can be defined as the average profit percentage that the bookmaker earns from a betting market.

Take for example, the toss prediction market, where most bookmakers offer odds in the range of 1.80-1.90.

The most interesting aspect of this market is that the odds for either outcome are the same, since it is an equal outcome event.

For understanding how to calculate the house edge, we shall assume the odds for the toss prediction market to be 1.90.

  • Toss prediction is an event purely dependent on luck, and has only two outcomes, each with a probability of 50% occurrence.
  • Let’s assume there are an equal number of bets for both outcomes – 100 bets of ₹100 each for heads, and 100 bets of ₹100 each for tails. However, outcome will be either heads or tails.
  • The total bet amount for the toss prediction market comes up to ₹20,000 (₹10,000 for heads and ₹10,000 for tails).
  • If we considered odds of 1.90, the bookmaker has to pay ₹19,000 against bets of ₹10,000 to the winners, whatever the outcome. Meanwhile, losing bets do not receive anything, and the funds go to the bookmaker.
  • The total inflow of bookmaker is ₹20,000 while the total outflow is ₹19,000, resulting in a profit of ₹1,000.
  • House edge = Profit/Total bets. Therefore, in this case, the bookmaker has a house edge of 5% in the toss prediction market.

Who Will Win the Toss Today? Predicting the Coin Toss

Given the popularity of the cricket toss prediction market, the first thing which comes to your mind when you want to bet on this market is ‘Who will win the toss today?’ or rather ‘Who can predict the toss’?

There are only two possibilities in a coin toss: ‘heads' or ‘tails', with both events having 0.5 probability of occurrence. Not you, not the captains, not cricket experts, and of course, not match referees, can ever predict the outcome with full confidence. It's really all a question of luck whether your bet wins or loses.

Who Conducts the Cricket Toss?

The toss is conducted on the cricket ground between the captains of the two teams, in the presence of the match referee and umpires.

How Does It Work?

The captains of both teams meet on the ground half an hour before the match. They then check the pitch conditions and exchange the squad sheets with each other. Once these ceremonials are completed, the toss then takes place.

Whichever captain predicts the correct toss result gets the chance to decide whether they want to bat or bowl first.

Traditionally, the home captain flips the coin while the visiting captain selects the coin side. The visiting captain must call their preferred choice, i.e., heads or tails, while the coin is in the air.

The match referee declares the result of the coin toss according to the side selected by the visiting captain, and then asks the winner to immediately make their batting decision.

What Kind of Coin Is Used for the Toss in Cricket?

The rule of thumb has been to use the currency coin of the host country, with just one clear guideline stating that one side of the coin should clearly indicate heads and the other tails.

However, there are certain cricketing occasions when match organisers mint coins to celebrate the occasion, such as Sachin Tendulkar’s 200th Test match, where a gold coin with the master blaster’s face was used.

In the Indian Premier League (IPL), specially minted gold coins with the IPL logo and the match details are used for every match.

Is Cricket Toss Important?

The order in which a team bats or bowls has a huge role in determining the outcome of the match. A toss win is the first step of turning the match in a particular team's favour. However, it alone does not guarantee a win.

It is how the captains capitalise on the toss win, plan the game, and use the playing conditions in their team’s favour that ultimately charts the road to victory.

Here are a few open advantages of winning the toss:

  • Mindset plays a huge factor in cricket, and winning the toss gives the psychological advantage of being in control from the very beginning.
  • In case of new pitches, it gives time to analyse the pitch by bowling first.
  • For pitches acclaimed for being batsmen or bowler-friendly, captains can take advantage of such conditions.
  • There are weather predictions before every match, allowing captains to take advantage of the weather to turn the game in their favour. For example, if rain is predicted later during the day, the captain can opt to bat second as the DLS (Duckworth–Lewis–Stern) method will be used. This method is historically known to favour teams chasing the score.
  • According to data cited by ESPN, teams winning the toss have won 6% more matches than their opponents.

Can Toss Wins Influence Matches?

A toss win basically gives the team an opportunity to start the match in the manner in which they want to. Whether their decision takes the right course or not depends on their planning and execution skills.

If captains analyse the pitch carefully and synchronise their lineup to take advantage of the pitch, then yes, toss wins can influence matches.

However, it is crucial to note that the toss advantage also varies across different formats of cricket. We have touched upon the impact of toss on different formats here below to assist you in better understanding on how to bet on cricket in the future:

Test Cricket

Test matches represent the original format of cricket, where both teams slug it out for five consecutive days. Data suggests that teams winning the toss win matches 2.6% more often.

From a general betting perspective, you can presume that captains will choose to bat first in most cases. This is because the pitch deteriorates towards the end of the match, making the pitch a hunting ground for pacers and spinners alike.

One Day International Cricket (ODI) cricket

ODIs are day and night matches starting in the afternoon and continuing late in the night, with 50 overs in each innings. Nowadays, even World Cup matches are held in this format.

The relevance of the toss win is higher here, with a 3.3% higher chance of victory by teams who win the toss.

The match is decided within a matter of few hours, with very little room for strategy changes – the option to bat or bowl has to be taken after carefully analysing the past trends on the pitch, the type of pitch, and the weather conditions.

For example, if there are weather predictions of drizzle or dew in the night, the toss-winning team might prefer to bat second to take advantage of the bowling disadvantage posed by such weather. And, of course, the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses.

T20 cricket

The shortest format of cricket is surprisingly the least affected by toss wins, often making you wonder even more in T20 tournaments like the IPL with questions like ‘Who will win the IPL toss today?’

The T20 format is all about smashing runs – traditional cricket rules and techniques do not influence this format much.

Teams do not mind losing wickets or leaking runs as long as they have the arsenal to knock boundaries. That said, most captains prefer to chase the score in this format.

Best Toss Prediction Tips: Captains with the Highest Winning Coin Toss Percentage

IPL 2022 is right around the corner, and we are sure you are looking for IPL stats, such as captains with the best toss winning history, to help you make a decision for the coin toss market this season.

To ace the toss prediction market, here is a list of the top three present IPL captains with the highest toss win percentage for all IPL seasons.

Captain Team Toss Win % Match Win %
Shreyas Iyer Kolkata Knight Riders 58.54% (24/41) 51.22%
M.S.Dhoni
Chennai Super Kings 52.10% (99/190) 61.05%
Rohit Sharma
Mumbai Indians 49.61% (64/129) 58.14%

Toss Prediction FAQs

How significant has the toss been in World Cups?

Toss is an undoubtedly important part of the game, but as we said, it is not the sole winning factor in a cricket match. Only 46% of the teams that won the toss went on to win the matches played in the World Cup.

Are cricket matches live streamed on mobile betting apps?

Of course! Almost all the best cricket betting apps live stream cricket matches. Livestreaming allows you to watch the match and bet live on your favourite matches simultaneously from the same device.

Which are some of the best betting sites for live cricket bets?

There are numerous bookmakers offering quality odds for cricket matches. However, if we scrutinise these in terms of security, convenience, and features, then we'd have to recommend bet365, 10CRIC, and Betway.

Most leading bookies also have blogs and articles, which provide some of the best betting tips and match predictions.

Can a bookmaker provide different odds for different teams in a toss prediction market?

Toss prediction is an event entirely dependent on chance, with equal odds for both teams. No legitimate bookmaker can predict the odds and offer different odds for the ‘Toss prediction for today’s match’ market. If you encounter such odds, there is either a technical glitch or a fraudulent intention from the bookmaker’s end.

In either case, we recommend you not to use the services of such sites.

Is the International Cricket Council (ICC) going to scrap the toss?

There have been a few claiming that tosses should be scrapped, as they promote inequality in the game. However, the ICC has not taken any step to scrap the toss, and all prominent cricketing bodies are still following the tradition. Therefore, as things currently stand, toss prediction markets will still be available on all the leading cricket betting sites for the foreseeable future.

Cricket Betting Advice Final Say

While there is no way to form a completely accurate toss prediction, you can use the results of the toss to shape your overall betting strategy for the game ahead. As we mentioned earlier, you can read up on both captain’s past decisions after winning the toss to try and give your toss prediction bet a certain direction.

As always, we recommend you choose value over everything else while placing bets!

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