Your Complete Guide To Arbitrage Betting – Risks, Arbitrage Tips & More (2024)

The sports betting ecosystem firmly adheres to the age-old principle of ‘greater the risk, greater the reward'. But what if we told you that there is a way to earn guaranteed profits with little to no risk? It sounds too good to be true, right? This technique is known as ‘arbitrage betting’.

In this blog, we will be exploring arbitrage betting in India and how it works, assessing the accompanying risks, and discussing the various tips and tricks needed to master this technique.

What Is Arbitrage Betting In India? How Does It Work?

The concept may sound complex but can really be broken down to simpler terms. In a nutshell, arbitrage betting is to place opposing bets (which means you wager on both possible outcomes) on the same sports event at two different sportsbooks. But remember that these two wagers must only ever be placed on odds that enable you to scoop up a profit irrespective of the actual outcome of the market.

Essential Read: Top International Cricket Betting Sites in India

For obvious reasons, such an opportunity will only be found at different sportsbooks, as no bookmaker would want to allow an arbitrage opportunity and expose themselves to potential losses running into hundreds of thousands of rupees. You will need to place your first wager at one betting site and the other wager at another.

Arbitrage betting has many names; some choose to label it as “surebets,” miracle bets,” and “arbs betting.”

Understanding Arbitrage Betting With An Example

Perhaps Southern Brave is playing London Spirit in an upcoming fixture of the 2024 Hundred cricket competition. In the match-winner market, you find Southern Brave priced at odds of 2.40 by one bookmaker, and London Spirit priced at 2.40 by another.

Now, suppose your total bet stake is ₹500. You bet ₹250 on the Southern Brave at one sportsbook and the remaining ₹250 on London Spirit at the other.

Now, here you will earn a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome of the game. How is that? If Southern Brave wins, your ₹250 bet on them will pay out ₹600 (₹250 x 2.40), and your net profit here will be = ₹100 (₹600 – ₹250 – ₹250 staked on London Spirit at the other bookmaker). The same happens if London Spirit wins, meaning you earn a ₹100 net profit irrespective of the outcome.

It is important to understand that the above-mentioned scenario is only hypothetical, and you will probably not find a situation quite like this in real life. But this helps to understand the concept of how to bet on the Hundred or other such leagues like the IPL or the Vitality T20 Blast and exploit any arbing opportunity.

Arbitrage Betting: A Real-Life Example

While I was on the topic, I came across a real-life example that facilitates arbitrage betting.

I found Parimatch offering odds of 1.60 on Lancashire to win the match, while Pinnacle priced Nottinghamshire at 2.71 to win.

My total stake was ₹1,000. I used an online arbitrage calculator (explained in more detail later) to find out the individual stakes to bet on both outcomes to assure myself a profit. The arb calculator laid out that I had to stake ₹628.77 on Lancashire to win at 1.60 on Parimatch and the remaining ₹371.23 on Nottinghamshire to win at 2.71 on Pinnacle.

Regardless of the outcome of the game, I would be taking home ₹1,006.03, which means my overall profit will be ₹6.03 (₹1,006.03 minus ₹1,000). This may seem like a pittance, but the goal is to stake significantly more than ₹1,000 if you find a similar scenario. This, along with trying to consistently locate and exploit arbitrage opportunities in top cricket competitions, will ultimately lead to significantly higher profits in the long run.

Is Arbitrage Betting Legal In India?

Arbitrage betting, being a subset of online sports betting, is legal so long as the latter is as well. That said, online gambling in India lies in a legal haze due to the absence of any government legislation on the same. The Public Gambling Act, 1867, deems offline gambling illegal but makes no mention of online gambling (for obvious reasons).

Also, India, being a “union of states”, affords the various individual states the right to formulate their own legislation to govern online gambling. For more information, please read our in-depth coverage on whether online gambling is legal in India.

That said, while the legality of arbitrage betting is not a matter of concern, there are quite a few risks associated with it, which we shall address moving forward in this blog.

Arbitrage Betting In India – What Should The Optimum Stake Be To Guarantee Profit?

Considering the goal is to earn an assured profit (regardless of the outcome), knowing the ideal stake is of paramount importance once you have identified an event or a betting market with ample opportunity for arbitrage. Though working out the ideal stake is easier said than done, if you are a math geek like us, tag along as we decode the formula to it.

Perhaps South Africa is playing Australia in an ODI. Both being top-class teams, we can expect a tight contest. In the match-winner market, you notice that one sportsbook has priced Australia at 1.70 and another has priced South Africa at 2.50 to win the game.

To calculate the optimum stake size, follow the steps below:

Step 1: Identifying the Arbitrage Window

If there is no room for arbing, the whole process becomes futile. So, for any market to enable arbitrage betting, the arbitrage percentage must be less than 100%. Arbitrage % is nothing but the sum of percentages of all outcomes of a particular market.

Outcome % = (1/Odds for outcome) x 100

So, in the example mentioned above:

Here, the arbitrage percentage is 98.82% (58.82 + 40). Since it is less than 100%, an opportunity for arbitrage is present.

Step 2: Calculating the Stake Size

Now that you have identified the arbitrage market, let’s find out the stake size for individual bets. Let’s assume that your total stake is ₹500.

Individual Stake Size = (Total Stake x Outcome%) / Arbitrage%

Step 3: Working Out Profit Earned Through Arbitrage

Arbitrage Profit = Returns from the Outcome minus Total Stake

Finding it overwhelming? No problem. You can easily bypass the math and save your time by using a simple arbitrage calculator. An online arb calculator allows you to enter the odds of the two (or more) events you wish to do arbitrage betting on, and it calculates the stake that you should use on each of those events to guarantee a profit.

While researching online arb calculators, I found this Surebets calculator on checkbestodds.com to be the most user-friendly and simple to understand. Below is a screenshot of how I worked out the numbers:

(Source┃Checkbestodds)

How To Find Arbitrage Betting Opportunities

As a roundup of what we've discussed so far, arbitrage is only possible when the odds (on any particular sporting event or market) differ significantly from one betting site to the next. For an opportunity for arbitrage to exist, two bookmakers must disagree about the outcome of an event, which will be reflected in their odds differential.

Now that you understand the concept, let’s go through how to go about finding arbitrage bets at different sportsbooks.

Exploiting Differences in Match Winner Odds

This is one of the easiest ways to spot an arbing possibility manually, as the match-winner market is the most common and the simplest to predict accurately. The higher the variance of odds between two sportsbooks, the bigger the chance of arbitrage.

Taking a cue from an example we've discussed earlier. Let's say both Southern Brave and London Spirit are priced at 2.40 by two different bookmakers (because the two sportsbooks are essentially in discord over which team has a better chance of winning). Your total stake is ₹500, divided equally between the two teams.

In this situation, your profit is guaranteed, regardless of which team wins. How? If either Southern Brave or London Spirit wins, your ₹250 stake on them will pay out ₹600, and you will pocket a net profit of ₹100 (₹600 – ₹250 – ₹250 staked on the other team to win).

Exploiting Differences in Odds of Other Markets

Other betting markets, such as a player scoring a half-century or how many runs are to be scored in the powerplay overs, might present an opportunity for arbitrage betting if looked at carefully. Though such prop markets aren't as popular as the traditional match winner bet, they can be a gold mine for arbing if you take the time to consider them in detail.

That said, try to look for binary markets where only two outcomes are possible. This makes arbitrage betting more profitable and straightforward.

Fluctuation in Odds After Initial Bet

If the odds fluctuate after your initial bet has been placed, an opportunity for arbitrage may present itself.

Let’s say India is taking on South Africa, with Parimatch pricing an India win at 1.50 and Rajabets pricing a victory for the Proteas at 2.00. You’ve bet on the men in blue at Parimatch, but later you get to know that two of their key players, Jasprit Bumrah and Rohit Sharma, sustained last-minute injuries and have been rested for the game, which significantly dampens their chances of winning.

Then you log back into Parimatch and Rajabets, respectively, and notice that India’s odds have shot up to 3.20 while South Africa’s have come down to 1.50 (indicating a better chance of winning the match). Now that you have already bet on India at Parimatch, you can seek to exploit this arbitrage opportunity that has arisen by wagering on a South Africa victory at Rajabets.

Using Arbitrage Betting Sites

These sites are basically aggregators that work by providing you with a list of sporting events and markets where an arbitrage opportunity may be present. Arbitrage betting websites can be extremely helpful because you won't have to do any manual work to find profit-making opportunities. These sites will show you all the matches, markets, and betting sites where you can find arbitrage.

However, there's a catch. Such sites are usually behind a paywall, which might not be very affordable for everyone. You should also stay away from many scam websites, which pose as arbitrage finders and ask for your credit and debit card information to provide you with a few free arbitrage markets.

Top Arbitrage Betting Sites In India

1. Surebet

Surebet is one of the best sites for arbitrage betting as far as pre-match bets are concerned. They cover around 300+ bookmakers around the world, as well as some of the leading offshore bookmakers operating in India. If you find the monthly subscription fee of ₹2,360 on the higher side, you can opt for a weekly subscription of ₹811.

2. BreakingBet

BreakingBet (seems like a rather interesting wordplay on you-know-which TV series!) has established itself as one of the best in the business, featuring a plethora of pre-match and in-play markets that allow no-risk arbing.

Moreover, it comes with a 30-day account freezing option, which allows you to pause your subscription if you are unable to pay the fee. They have weekly, monthly, quarterly, bi-annual, and annual subscription plans to suit the varying needs of their subscribers. The only downside is that BreakingBet doesn’t offer a trial period.

3. BetBurger

Featuring customisable filters and covering a range of live and pre-match bets, BetBurger is widely acclaimed to be one of the best sites for arbitrage betting in India. Apart from being the only site on this list to be available in Hindi, it also has a user-friendly interface that makes it easy to place sure bets. The unlimited trial period is a godsend; however, it does come with a few riders: there's a 15-minute time delay, and it only shows arbitrage markets that have a profit of up to 1%.

Risks Involved In Arbitrage Betting

In its most effective form, arbitrage betting is as close to zero-risk betting as you will ever find in online sports gambling. That said, as with everything else in life, there are a few risks and failings associated with this strategy. Here's a rundown of the same.

1. Human Errors in Calculations

There is always a chance of making a mistake if you are manually calculating your stake for arbitrage betting. Even with online arbitrage calculators, there remains a possibility of committing an error. You could enter the wrong odds or might end up putting an incorrect (more or less than ideal) stake on an undesirable outcome or betting market.

2. Cancelled or Voided Bets

Perhaps you see an arbitrage window in the market for ‘Virat Kohli to score a fifty” in a game. You go ahead and bet on both outcomes (yes and no) at two different sportsbooks. However, Kohli happens to sustain an eleventh-minute injury and is rested. In that case, the bookmakers could void your bet entirely, in which case you lose your entire stake.

However, on rare occasions, some of the finest cricket betting apps sites might choose to refund your stake if the market does become void. In that case, the loss is only in terms of the arbitrage opportunity and not monetary.

3. Rapid Fluctuations in Odds

Fluctuating odds is a double-edged sword; the movement can either facilitate arbing or wipe out the opportunity altogether.

Let's say you identify an opportunity to exploit the arbitrage in a game between England and Australia. Even though it’s evenly matched, you see bookmakers favouring the former, as many of Australia's key players aren’t playing. You react accordingly by betting on both teams at two different sportsbooks, with the bigger stake on England due to their perceived better chances of winning.

But just before the match starts, the star Aussie players are declared fit and confirmed in the playing XI. Now, the bookmakers will act fast and make Australia their favourites (which means their odds go down considerably). This move kills your arbitrage opportunity instantly, as you won’t make a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome. In fact, you will likely incur a loss as your initial stake on Australia was lower.

(Source: Melbet)

4. Account Suspensions

It’s an open secret that online sports betting is always profitable for the house because of how bookmakers calculate odds. Since arbitrage betting assures a profit irrespective of the outcome, it reduces the bookmakers' earnings significantly when abused by many.

Since the low-profitability nature of arbitrage betting demands a significantly large initial investment, you will be making huge profits but at low margins. This will make it crystal clear for the bookies to sniff out your arbing strategies by studying your betting patterns and behaviours. They will mostly likely penalise you by imposing stake limitations and customising market locks.

Worst case scenario is that they might suspend or even entirely ban your account.

5. Dampens the Excitement

More often than not, punters like to wager on sports due to the fun and exhilaration of seeing their bets come up correct. Moreover, it is highly rewarding to see your favourite team win on the field and for your bet to also end up as predicted. All in all, sports betting should be fun and casual and not one's primary source of income.

If you are an avid sports fan and still engage in arbitrage betting, you’ll most likely end up singing along to the classic B.B. King song ‘The Thrill Is Gone’, as you will lose interest in sports betting or, in worse cases, stop loving the sport itself in the long run.

That said, if you have no interest in sports and you have a weather eye on the money, then arbitrage betting might not be a bad idea after all.

Arbitrage Betting Tips & Tricks – How To Avoid Getting Banned?

Arbitrage betting means eroding profits for the betting site, which is why they will most likely ban your account (or limit your betting) if you’re caught. But don’t worry; we won’t let that happen. Here are a few tips and strategies that will help to mask your activity and allow you to earn an assured profit every time.

1. Mix and Match Bookmakers

As a rule of thumb, never stick to the same two bookmakers for arbitrage betting in India. Which means that if you’ve used Melbet and 10CRIC once, use maybe Parimatch and 20Bet the second time. Also, steer clear of using the same combination over and over again; chop and change your sportsbook combinations as well in order to fly beneath the radar and prevent sportsbooks from establishing a common pattern in your online gambling footprint.

2. Don’t Be Consistent with Your Bets

Though the traditional match-winner market is ideal for arbitrage opportunities, expect the bookmakers to know this as well. If your betting history indicates that you’ve always wagered on the same markets or around the same time (for instance, very close to odds posting at one sportsbook and just before match time at the other), this could make it easy for the betting site to deduce your strategy.

All in all, the idea is to avoid displaying consistency in your betting patterns, and you should be good.

3. Round Up Your Stakes

This is one of the most vital strategies to mask arbitrage betting in India. That's because when you're looking for a guaranteed profit, you will almost always have rather unusual bet stakes in decimals and fractions (and not in integers). You might have noticed this throughout the sure bet examples that have been discussed in this blog.

Avoid using the exact stake that your arbitrage calculator throws up every time, as that can tip off the bookmakers, and your account could be gone for good.

You can easily circumvent this problem by rounding up your bets to the nearest integer. Yes, this might result in a small loss of ROI, which will be a bitter pill to swallow considering arbitrage betting anyway entails paper-thin margins. But don't you think it’s better than getting your account suspended or even banned?

4. Limit Your Deposits and Withdrawals

Arbitrage is a game of wafer-thin margins, and for you to earn handsome profits, you will have to deposit big money. And if you are making frequent, huge deposits and withdrawals without a care in the world, you will almost certainly be attracting unwanted attention.

On that note, here are some of the finest betting sites with a low minimum deposit.

We strongly advise you to resist the temptation and avoid making multiple transactions. That said, there is a big upside to it. In rare cases, the betting site might just erroneously consider you a VIP and offer you lucrative promotions tailored to highrollers. However, the chance of this happening is low, as you will be withdrawing continuously as well if your ultimate objective is guaranteed earnings.

5. Keep Your Stakes Low

Yes, you need to stake a lot to actually profit from arbitrage betting, and the finest high-stakes bookmakers will help you do just that. But if you keep at it, it'll be akin to you wearing a neon hoodie to a party with a formal dress code. In the process, you will be jeopardising your betting account, as it is a clear red flag for operators.

The objective here is to keep your stake sizes low and bet consistently but randomly. Basically, you want to blend in with the crowd and not stand out.

Tools Required For Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage Betting vs. Matched Betting?

Although arbitrage betting and no-risk matched betting share a common objective (which is to assure a profit by covering all possible outcomes of a particular event), these two strategies work out in different ways.

In arbitrage betting, the task cut out for you is to exploit the differences in odds (on a particular event) offered by different bookmakers to earn a guaranteed profit, and you do it all with your own money.

Matched betting, on the other hand, also guarantees a profit by placing opposing bets, but only here do you ‘back' an event to happen and then ‘lay' the same event to not happen using a betting exchange. Also, you do it by leveraging the free bets and other promotions on offer at the bookmaker (and not with your own money).

Also Read: Best Betting Exchange Apps & Sites in India

Importantly, in matched betting, you lose the “stake” part of your bet and only get to pocket the profit, whereas in arbitrage betting, your returns include the stake as well.

CricketBettingAdvice Final Say

with little to no risk. Even though it takes a lot of time and painstaking attention to detail on your part to exploit arbitrage opportunities (and that too for a nominal ROI), if done correctly, it can help you pile on robust profits over the long term.

However, as we've discussed in this blog, the strategy comes with its fair share of risks, which you should be careful about—none more important than our betting account getting suspended indefinitely or, worse, banned for good. But if you manage to keep in mind the various arbitrage betting tips and tricks discussed here, you will be good to go.

So, learn up and give yourself a fair shot at earning a guaranteed profit. And, as always, bet responsibly.