Bet on Small Odds With The Low Odds Betting Strategy (2024)

Looking for a smart way to bet and maximise profitability while reducing the risks? The low odds betting strategy could be the ideal fit for you. With suitable betting markets and a disciplined approach, you can earn consistent profits if you know exactly how to bet on small odds.

In this article, we will go through everything there is to this approach: long odds vs. short odds, low odds betting tips, how to spot value in small odds, and ultimately, whether it can be a viable, long-term strategy.

What Do Low Odds Mean in Sports Betting?

Before getting into what low odds mean, let’s understand what ‘odds’ are in sports betting. Simply put, odds represent the implied probability that the best online betting sites work out for a particular outcome (of an event or a match) to happen. It is from this implied probability that your returns are determined, that is, if the wager wins.

If you wish to dig deeper, you can learn more about how bookmakers calculate the odds for an outcome.

Relation Between Odds and Implied Probability

First things first, betting odds and implied probability are inversely related, which means the more the odds, the less the implied probability, and vice versa. Now, there's a simple formula to calculate implied probability from the odds offered. And that is:

Implied Probability = 1/ (Betting site odds) * 100%

For example, Melbet is offering odds of 1.45 on India to win a match. This means that Melbet is implying that India has a win probability of 68.97% (1/1.45 x 100).

That out of the way, let's understand what low odds mean.

Low Odds Meaning in Sports Betting

Low or short odds on a particular outcome or a betting market mean that there's a high probability for that outcome to happen. For example, imagine India playing Nepal in a limited-overs fixture in Mohali, Punjab. In this kind of situation, you can expect even the finest cricket betting apps to price India ridiculously short, considering the men in blue are certain to win this game 101 times out of 100.

From the above example, you can deduce that the lower the odds, the lesser the risk, and therefore, lower potential returns. That said, if you can build a portfolio of successful bets on low odds, your profits will obviously add up over time.

What Do Low or Short Odds Mean? How Do You Identify Them?

  • For the sake of understanding from a theoretical standpoint, we will define odds below 2.00 as ‘low'.
  • The reason being that odds of 2.00 suggest an implied probability of 50%, and any event that has a probability of more than 50% is more likely to happen.
  • That said, in sports betting, outcomes priced between 1.10 and 1.40 are typically considered low, short, or small odds.

But the definition of ‘low' is subjective and varies depending on how you perceive it. For example, odds of 1.85 (meaning an implied probability of 54.05%) can be thought of as low if you're backing an underdog like Scotland to win against India in a game of cricket, while the same might seem not as low if you're backing the men in blue. That's because, in reality, India will on almost every day of the week have a much higher likelihood of defeating the Scots.

That said, in most cases, the low-odds betting strategy means backing the favourites. Let’s look at a real-life example of how to bet on low odds:

Odds Calculator 1

(Source: Melbet)

As you can see from the above screenshot, Melbet is offering the following odds on the 3rd T20I between Scotland and Australia:

  • Scotland to win: 8.100, which means implied probability = 1/8.10 * 100 = 12.35%
  • Australia to win: 1.069, so implied probability = 1/1.069 * 100 = 93.55%

So, in this case, Australia is priced at 1.069, which is indeed rather low. The reason being that Melbet reckons that the visitors are the clear favourites to win, which we also corroborate as followers of the sport. That said, it is humbling to remember that anything can happen on matchday, and there's always that outside chance of the underdogs stepping up to the occasion and upsetting all calculations.

Now, let’s say you stake ₹500 on Australia to win, which they do comfortably. Therefore, your total returns = ₹500 * 1.069 = ₹534.50. Which means your profit = ₹534.50 – ₹500 = ₹34.50.

To sum up, low odds in betting parlance imply a higher chance of success even if the profit margin is low. Once you've thoroughly understood implied probability, you can better assess the value hidden in a wager and place an informed bet. We will cover the concept of value elaborately later in this guide.

How to Bet on Small Odds

It’s important to note that a low-odds betting strategy will not reward you with generous profits; instead, you will earn small but consistently with each successful wager, all adding up in the long run. Once you get comfortable, you can slowly experiment by betting with higher stakes and on longer odds.

That out of the way, let's look at how you can bet on low odds for better value.

1. Consider Accumulators

When it comes to betting on short odds, it might feel like being in a Catch-22 situation: you have to forego big paydays for safety, but you also cannot sacrifice the surety of betting on the favourites, as a losing wager will eat away at your stake. But what if we told you that there is a way around despite the small odds?

The answer is by betting on accumulator outcomes. You can combine several — two, three, or more, depending on how sure you are about each of those — low-odds selections into an accumulator, where the odds on the individual outcomes are multiplied, opening up the possibility of earning a much higher profit with a small, initial stake.

But the catch here is that all your selections must win for the accumulator to payout. However, since you'll be betting on the favourites, your risk factor will still be a lot less compared to an outcome with higher odds (as that would mean a very low implied probability).

Here is a real-life example from Melbet of how you can combine multiple low-odds outcomes into a single accumulator:

  • Bet 1: Australia to beat Scotland at 1.069
  • Bet 2: England (women) to beat Republic of Ireland (women) at 1.10
  • Bet 3: England to beat Sri Lanka at 1.125

Say you’ve decided to stake ₹200 on each of the three markets mentioned above, individually. Here is how your returns will look if all three bets are successful:

  • Australia wins: Returns of ₹213.80 and a profit of ₹13.80
  • England Women win: Returns of ₹220 and a profit of ₹20
  • England wins: Returns of ₹225 and a profit of ₹25
  • Total returns: ₹658.80
  • Therefore, total profit = ₹58.80 (₹658.80-600)

Now, let’s see what happens when you combine them into an accumulator with the same stake of ₹600 (refer to the screenshot below).

Low Odds Acca Bets Example

(Source: Melbet)

Here is how your returns will look if your acca bet lands:

  • Stake₹600
  • Odds: 1.32 (individual odds multiplied)
  • Returns: ₹793.73
  • Therefore, profit = ₹193.73

So, by combining the three individual markets into an accumulator, your net profit is ₹193.73, a solid ₹134.93 more than what you'd have earned with three individual wagers. You can learn more about how to use accumulators effectively in our in-depth guide to accumulator betting.

2. Use The ‘Rising’ Strategy

The ‘Rising’ or ‘Snowball' strategy involves betting a small stake on a market with low odds (or on the favourites) and ploughing back the returns into the next wager till you reach your profit goal. The objective is to build a series of small winning wagers, eventually leading to your desired level of earnings. Here is an example of how to use the ‘Rising’ strategy when betting on low odds.

Let’s say your initial stake is ₹500 and your goal is to earn ₹3,000 in returns using the above approach. The following table explains how this strategy works:

BetStakeOddsTotal ReturnsProfit
Bet 1₹5001.50₹750₹250
Bet 2₹7501.40₹1,050₹300
Bet 3₹1,0501.45₹1,522.50₹472.50
Bet 4₹1,522.501.50₹2,283.75₹761.25
Bet 5₹2,283.751.32₹3,013.35₹729.60

*The above table is in keeping with all your bets being successful.

As per the table, by the time you reach Bet #5, you’ve managed to ‘raise’ your initial stake of ₹500 to ₹3,013.35, which means a profit of ₹2,513.35. Since this strategy depends on all your wagers being successful, you should only bet on outcomes with a very high probability of winning.

Here are a few pointers you should remember when using the ‘rising’ strategy:

  • Be realistic with targets: Do not set unrealistic targets, such as earning ₹50,000 from a stake of ₹500. You will require at least 20–25 successful bets to achieve this mammoth target, which is next to impossible in a real-world scenario. The key here is to build up your bankroll with slow and steady gains.
  • Know when to stop: If you have reached your goal, stop the chain and start a new series of bets. Please don’t let emotions take over your betting decisions. Things can go south really quick if you lose one bet in the later stages of the chain. Since the wagers in the later stages are compounded with each bet, you might end up losing everything.
  • Keep your bet chain small: Remember that no bookmaker likes to see punters winning consistently. Therefore, try to keep your snowball bet chain as small as possible. Some bookmakers might limit or even suspend your account upon noticing that you’ve been winning your wagers consecutively.

Bet on Small Odds – Tips & Strategies

The key to success when betting on small odds is being consistent and focusing on outcomes with a high probability of happening. To that end, here are some strategies that can help you maximise your winnings from low-odds bets:

1. Do Your Research Well

Even though low prices are the safest odds to bet on, things can go sour in the blink of an eye due to uncontrollable external factors.

Let’s say you put your money on England to win the third Test match against Sri Lanka at odds of 1.25 (which means implied probability of England winning = 83.33%). For a little context, this Sri Lanka tour of England comprised three Test matches, of which the hosts already won the first two comfortably, which led you to believe that they would win the final Test as well.

However, as it turned out, Sri Lanka put up a gritty performance and surprised all and sundry, winning the match by 8 wickets. The hosts' batting order fell like a pack of cards in their second innings, with as many as seven players scoring in single digits. Importantly, the nature of the pitch, coupled with England's unpredictable weather, is to blame for this collapse. But who would've thought, right? That's precisely how pitch conditions impact

Such incalculable external determinants can suddenly turn your sure bet into a risky proposition. However, with extensive research — factor in team and player stats, player form, injury updates, weather conditions, nature of the wicket, and home advantage — you can steer clear of betting blindly based on just the bookies' implied probability. On that note, know more about cricket analysis and how it helps you place a calculated bet.

2. Be Selective

While this article is your guide to betting on low odds, some odds are just too short, such as outcomes priced at 1.02 or 1.04. What are you even risking your money for? Is it going to be worthwhile at all? No, so skip such bets unless you want to combine them into an accumulator.

3. Diversify Your Bets

Suppose you own a car with a 5-speed transmission, but you only drive in third gear. This limits your vehicle's performance, stopping it from reaching its optimum potential. Likewise, relying on just one kind of betting market every time will hurt your profit-maximising potential in the long run.

Importantly, upon diversifying, you can effectively cushion the impact of a few unsuccessful wagers on your bankroll. Even if one bet doesn’t go as planned, the other bets with higher odds can help you recover losses and maybe even earn a profit!

Therefore, it's prudent to have a diverse portfolio comprising a mix of betting markets—three-way (1X2), top batter and bowler, and other prop bets like first dismissal method and runs to be scored in the powerplay—from the world's top cricket leagues and tournaments.

4. Use Betting Offers & Promotions

You can consider leveraging welcome offers on sports betting and similar promotions like acca insurance, boosted odds, and free bets. The latter is a zero-risk bet, wherein the stake is provided by the bookmaker. So, even if you lose your wager, it'll hurt less.

For example, as of the day of publishing, 1xBet is offering ₹2,519 cricket free bets (only single pre-match and live bets are eligible) on correctly predicting the outcome of the first ball of the match. In case your bet loses, you won’t be disappointed, as the stake never came out of your own pocket to begin with.

That said, please go through the promotions' T&Cs in painstaking detail before using it. Some of these betting offers entail stringent turnover/wagering requirements, which you do not want to overlook.

5. Use Odds Comparison Software

There are dedicated online tools that allow you to compare odds from multiple bookmakers, both established and brand-new, to see which provides the best bang for your buck. To the casual punter, odds of 1.25 and 1.30 might seem the same, but the significance of the extra 0.05 becomes starker if you're betting on accumulator outcomes.

For example, you bet ₹500 on odds of 1.25, which yields ₹625, while the same stake used on 1.30 yields ₹650. Taken separately, this difference of ₹25 might look insignificant, but if you are making a series of 15 wagers, this humble ₹25 gets multiplied to become ₹375.

6. Use Odds Calculators

Online calculators on the web help you understand potential payouts for different bet types, crucial for effective bankroll management.

While the calculation of potential returns is fairly easy—you simply multiply the stake with decimal odds—it can get taxing if there are multiple bets involved or you're betting on an accumulator. Nowadays, the majority of the INR betting sites calculate potential payouts for you in the bet slip.

7. Follow Tipsters

Tipsters make life easier for both casual and seasoned punters. However, not all tipsters are created equal, which is why you must only choose them who back their match predictions and betting tips with detailed analysis and serious number-crunching.

Also, please never follow tipsters blindly. People or websites providing these tips are also humans, prone to the same mistakes that everyone makes.

8. Avoid Close Encounters & Derbies

Although an excellent plan when making arbitrage bets, wagering on close contests and tightly fought derbies is never a good idea if you wish to bet on small odds and earn a respectable profit. That is because these matches don’t have any clear favourites, which is why the odds on both teams will be practically the same.

A classic example to drive home this point would be betting on CSK vs. MI (these two IPL behemoths have a tight head-to-head record of 17-20 in MI's favour) or DC vs. RR (H2H record being 14-15 in Rajasthan's favour) or, for that matter, the Deccan Derby of RCB vs. SRH (H2H record being 11-13 in SRH's favour). You can understand that the chances of winning are as good as of losing, as there's very little separating these teams.

Also Read: IPL Betting Tips & Predictions (2024)

Low Odds vs. High Odds

Is betting on lower odds better than higher odds? Let's look at a comparative analysis of the two in this section:

Probability of Winning

  • Low or short odds on a selection mean it has a higher likelihood of happening and, therefore, a higher chance of your wager being successful.
  • Statistically, you are likelier to get positive returns in the long term, as betting on low odds means you’re most likely backing the favourites.
  • Also, needless to say, you can spot the favourites from a mile away.
  • Contrarily, the higher the odds, the lower the implied probability of that outcome. For example, if your selection is priced at 4.00, its implied probability is 25%, which means it is likely to win one out of four times.

Payout Value

  • Betting on short-priced selections, irrespective of the market, almost always means you're backing the favourites.
  • Which means while statistically you are almost guaranteed a return every time, the value of the same will not be as impressive.
  • On the other hand, a winning bet on longer odds translates to a big payout. Even a single successful bet can potentially double or triple your initial stake.

Risk Factor

  • With a low-odds betting strategy, even if you lose a few wagers here and there, it won’t hurt your bankroll much, as your plan will be to build on a series of small and successful winners.
  • Small odds could also mean you are betting on draw no bet and double chance markets, both of which are remarkably safe.
  • Betting on high odds, on the contrary, is going all out. It's a high-risk, high-reward approach, as even one losing bet can leave a yawning hole in your bankroll.
  • That's precisely why a smart way to safeguard your finances from tumbling is by choosing to bet with smaller stakes.

How to Find Value if You Bet on Small Odds

If you think betting on low odds would bring little value, think again. Contrary to what many might think, there’s value in backing the favourites, and for this, you must first assess if the implied probability is lower than the actual or true probability of a particular market.

For example, assume Parimatch prices India at 1.40 to win a T20I against Afghanistan. So, according to the bookmaker, India’s implied probability of winning is 71.43% (1/1.40 * 100). But while you know that Afghanistan is a giant killer and has in the past convincingly defeated big teams like Australia, New Zealand, and Pakistan, you also believe that India might just be too good for the Afghans, despite their nascent rivalry in the shortest format.

So, after putting in your own research, you find that the true probability of India winning the game could be anywhere between 75 and 80%, which means the true odds should have been even lower than 1.40. This indicates that there's value to be unlocked in this wager.

For a more in-depth understanding of the concepts of implied probability, true probability, and true odds, check out our article on value bets.

CricketBettingAdvice Final Say

If you've just begun your online gambling journey, we will always recommend that you start with small stakes and on the safest odds to bet on, which means bet on short odds. That's because when you do so, you will likely be betting on the favourites, meaning the risk will be considerably low.

We hope you found this guide useful and comprehensive. You can check out our other cricket betting guides written by our small team of enthusiasts of the sport for sharp insights and all the necessary resources that you need to bet seamlessly on cricket.

Bet on Small Odds FAQs

What do low odds mean in betting?

Low odds in betting imply a high probability of success. When you bet on such markets, even though the profits aren’t lucrative, the risk becomes negligible. If you're backing selections priced anywhere below 1.80-2.00, it's thought to be betting on short or small odds.

How do I calculate the implied probability of an outcome from bookmaker’s odds?

To calculate implied probability, apply the following formula: 1/decimal odds * 100 (expressed as a percentage).

How to bet on low odds?

Since short odds generate low returns, you can either combine multiple short-priced selections into an accumulator bet or apply the ‘snowball’ or ‘rising' staking plan to maximise profits.

Is betting on lower odds better than on high odds?

Both approaches have their share of pros and cons. So, the question is, what are you looking for? If you seek steady and long-term profits, short odds might just be the ideal strategy. But if you want larger payouts and the associated thrill of sports betting, then you can choose to back high-priced selections.

Can small-odds betting be profitable long-term?

Yes, it sure can be, but it will require a sustained approach on your part. Remember, the goal is to build a portfolio of a series of successful wagers placed on low odds and let the total returns add up in the long run.

Which markets are ideal to bet on small odds?

The three off the top of our heads are undoubtedly draw no bet, double chance, and the good old 1X2 markets.

What should be the stake size if I’m betting on small odds?

The answer to this is subjective, as it depends on how much you can afford to lose. That said, anything between 1% and 5% of your bankroll should be good. Following this will allow you to manage the risks involved while ensuring the longevity of this betting strategy.

What are the safest odds to bet on?

Selections with odds ranging from 1.10 to 1.40 are considered safe, as they imply a probability between 71.43% and 90.91%.

Further Reading

  1. What Are Value Bets (2024) – How to Find Value in Sports Betting? Have you ever felt looking at a particular betting market...
  2. Sports Betting Terms Explained With Examples (2024) — Your Easy Betting Glossary Regardless of whether you've just started dabbling in online gambling...
  3. The 26 Best Cricket Betting Apps in India for Android & iOS (2024) Ready to explore the epitome of cricket betting excitement? Here...

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