What Are Value Bets (2024) – How to Find Value in Sports Betting?

Have you ever felt looking at a particular betting market that the odds offered on it are more than what they should have been? If yes, you've stumbled upon a value bet, one that is pretty rare to find. In this guide, we will deep dive into how to find value in sports betting and the various tips and strategies to spot and exploit value bets.

Let's start.

Understanding Value Betting – Explained With Example

For starters, please note that there's no particular category called ‘value bets'. Rather, it is simply a strategy to identify betting markets where the actual (or true) probability of an event to happen is thought to be higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker’s odds.

That said, a valid question at this point should be that if betting sites only show the odds of a particular outcome, how did we work out the implied probability from it? There's a really simple formula for it, that's how.

How to Calculate Implied Probability from Betting Odds?

Implied Probability = 1/ (Betting site odds) * 100%

Let’s say 1xBet has priced Rohit Sharma at 2.50 to score a fifty. This means the bookmaker's implied probability = 1 / 2.50 x 100 = 40%.

Now that you have your implied probability, you can compare it with the actual or true probability to assess whether the market offers a value betting opportunity or not. Alternatively, you can convert the true probability to odds (using the same formula mentioned above) and then compare the same with the implied odds (from the bookmaker) to see which one provides better value to bet on.

For example, if you think the true probability of India scoring above 50 runs in the first six overs of a game against Ireland is 65%, then the true odds of that event happening will be: 100/65 = 1.54 (by using the same formula as above).

How to Find Value in Sports Betting?

In this section, we will dig deeper into how such value is calculated and the arithmetic behind it. But before that, we must have access to four important numbers:

Say, India and Pakistan will go head-to-head in the upcoming 2025 ICC Champions Trophy, and 1xBet has priced India to win at 1.65. With your detailed analysis of the two teams and extensive research, your intuition tells you that the true probability of India winning is 65%.

Now, considering the above example:

Now, that out of the way, let’s calculate if the above example represents a value betting opportunity or not (we can follow three different approaches for it):

Regardless of the approach, if the calculated figure is more than 0, that's a value-adding bet right there. So, the greater the value, the higher the profit. Now let’s go through these three approaches, one by one.

Approach A: Calculating Value Bets with True & Implied Probability

The formula for this is: Value = True Probability – Implied Probability / Implied Probability

So, putting the aforementioned example into this formula, we get: 0.65 – 0.606 / 0.606 = 0.0726 = 0.073 (approx.). Notice that the resultant number is greater than 0, which means we can conclude that this bet does offer value.

Approach B: Calculating Value Bets with True Probability & Implied Odds

The formula for this is: Value = (True Probability x Implied Odds) – 1

Putting the aforementioned example into this formula, we get: (0.65 x 1.65) – 1 = 0.0725 = 0.073 (approx.). The number is greater than 0, which means you can find value in this wager.

Approach C: Calculating Value Bets with True & Implied Odds

The formula for this is: Value = Implied Odds / True Odds – 1

Putting the aforementioned example into this formula, we get: 1.65/1.538 – 1 = 0.0728 = 0.073 (approx.).

Understanding & Calculating True Probability

In the world of sports betting, the true probability of any event is, of course, subjective due to obvious reasons. And that's precisely why the concept and perceived profitability of value bets may also drastically change. For example, you might think India has a 65% chance to win against Pakistan, while your friend may reckon both teams are in with a 50-50 chance.

This standard health warning out of the way, let’s get down to business with a real-life example of an upcoming West Indies vs. South Africa T20I happening at the Brian Lara Stadium in Trinidad (see screenshot below).

(Source: Melbet)

In this example, we are calculating the true probability with the following factors:

Since it is almost impossible for the average punter to consider too many variables, and also for the sake of simplifying our calculation, we will only be factoring in relative match records in the current year (2024). Also, we've sourced our data from ESPNcricinfo, and all this information is updated and accurate as of the day of writing this article.

So, here is all the necessary information (limited to 2024) to calculate true probability:

The formula to calculate true probability for the home team to win here is: No. of wins by home team + No. of losses by away team / Total matches played by both teams. Therefore, true probability for West Indies to win: (8+4) / (12+13) = 0.48, or 48%.

Likewise, the same for the away team to win is: No. of wins by away team + No. of losses by home team / Total matches played by both teams. Therefore, true probability for South Africa to win: (8+2) / (12+13) = 0.40, or 40%.

Now, the sum of all true probabilities should be 100%. However, in this case, it's 88% (40+48), so we can assume that the remaining 12% basically covers the possibility of ties or no-results.

Now if you go back to the screenshot above, you will find:

If you add both implied probabilities, the resultant figure is 105.365%. It is this extra 5.365% that is the bookmaker's profit margin, or vigorish.

Value Bets vs. Regular Bets

To the casual punter, both value and regular bets may seem the same. However, there is a subtle difference, and this difference essentially lies in how you approach the two.

On the contrary, if you do not go into the math, then the same will be just another (regular) bet.

Types of Value Bets

A potential value wager may be present in different forms and across betting markets, depending on how, where, and when you identify one. Here's a rundown:

1. Betting on Favourites

As the name suggests, this involves wagering on the favourites to win. While the stronger of the two teams will be priced low, you may be able to extract value if you find that the true odds would have been lesser than the implied odds.

For example, an in-form Indian team is taking on a resurgent Pakistan, where you feel that the men in blue have a solid 80% chance of winning (true probability). As per the formula, true odds should be 1.25, but you find that the bookmaker has priced India at 1.52 (implied probability of approx. 65.8%). There's value for you right there.

2. Value Arising out of Market Inefficiency

Although rare, some INR bookmakers may take time to update market odds (and risk overpricing them) due to a dearth of available information or a late reaction to incoming information. Exploit this scenario to find value in sports betting.

3. Underdog Bets

This is the opposite of betting on favourites. Underdogs are always priced higher than the favourites because of the perceived (implied) probability of them losing the game.

4. Situational Bets

In a sport like cricket, there are multiple variables, including weather conditions, the nature of the pitch, any last-minute injuries, and team form, which can potentially influence match outcomes. Although rare, you may come across instances where the implied odds have been calculated without factoring in these moving parts.

For example, you learn that India is going to play England on a green deck with a lot of swing on offer. Suppose Jasprit Bumrah has been priced at 2.33 to take over 0.5 wickets, which means the implied probability of him taking at least 1 wicket is 42.91%. However, you being the cricket buff, very well know that the Indian right-arm fast can wreak havoc on a bowling-friendly wicket, which is why you reckon that Bumrah easily has a 70-80% chance (true probability) of taking a wicket.

Value Betting Tips & Strategies

To start with, you need three things on your side: patience, discipline, and robust analytical skills. Below, we've compiled a list of strategies that you can adopt to make the most of your betting stake:

1. Understand Relationship Between Odds and Probability

Value betting has four best friends: implied odds, implied probability, true odds, and true probability. A solid understanding of these four concepts is essential to finding value in sports betting.

A quick refresher here; implied probability formula: 1/ (Betting site odds) * 100%. Work out the implied probability and compare it with your perceived (true) probability, and you will know if there's value in the bet if the former number is less than the latter.

Alternatively, if calculations are not your thing, you can always rely on online calculators available easily on the web.

2. Follow Tipsters

This is a good starting point, especially if you're new on the road. You will find several tipsters online with varying proficiency and expertise. That said, always favour those that back their betting tips and match predictions with data and rationale rather than simply stating random markets.

PS: Never follow any tipster to the tee. Take their predictions with a pinch of salt, and remember that any sport is unpredictable at the end of the day.

3. Try to Find Value in Niche Markets

The majority of betting markets for top cricket leagues and tournaments are heavily monitored and scrutinised, reducing the possibility of finding value. So, the idea is to be selective; try to find less popular competitions and domestic leagues that may not attract the attention of bookmakers at all times.

Developing a solid understanding of more than one league will surely boost your chances of finding value in betting.

4. Look for the Best Odds

Even though bookmakers offer odds in the same ballpark, you might sometimes find slightly differing odds for the same betting market across operators. Having accounts on multiple online betting apps and sites will make it easy for you to spot differences in the odds for a particular outcome and exploit that. Alternatively, you can use third-party value betting software like BetBurger, SureBet, and BreakingBet.

5. Leverage Betting Promotions

Make the most of sports welcome bonuses and other betting promotions, such as free bets. With the latter, the stake doesn't go out of your pocket, so it hurts a lot less even if you lose the free bet.

That said, it is always recommended that you go through the terms and conditions thoroughly before using a promotion, as some of these might entail pretty stringent wagering requirements, which could then defeat the entire purpose of trying to find value bets.

6. Consider Cashing Out

Cash-out is a utility feature that lets you safeguard your profits and/or curtail losses by allowing you to cash out your wager before the event is over. You can consider cashing out as part of your strategy, as this, in a way, lends more value to your wager if you are apprehensive of your selection losing.

Is Value Betting Profitable?

The primary objective of pursuing a value-driven strategy is to find overpriced selections, which is why it is indeed profitable in the long run. That said, there's quite some math involved in working out the implied probability (from the implied odds) and comparing it with the true probability and odds (again some arithmetic in here).

Therefore, if you make it a habit to look for value consistently, your bottom line will remain in the positive in the long haul, even if you lose a few wagers here and there (which you definitely will).

Where Do You Look for Value Bets?

Not all sports betting markets will present you with value, but some will. Here's us looking at a few bet types where finding worth is likelier and easier.

Draw No Bet & Double Chance

In draw no bet, you can wager on either a ‘home' or an ‘away' win, and should the game end in a draw, your stake will get refunded. Similarly, a double chance bet lets you secure two different outcomes—home win with draw; away win with draw; and home win with away win—with a single wager.

Both of these markets involve a 50-50 chance and are thus perfect if you're looking for value, considering their inherent nature of being low-risk, low-return.

1×2

This three-way wager is a useful cricket betting strategy, particularly for Test matches, as the odds for a draw in this market are usually significantly higher than the ‘home' and ‘away' wins.

Live Betting

This is hands down one of the best avenues to find value, but only if you have a thorough understanding of the game’s dynamics. Go for late in-play markets, like runs to be scored or wickets to be taken during the slog overs of a match, since that's where you'll likely find the most competitive odds.

However, it's good to remember that trying to lock in value when betting in-play is easier said than done, considering odds fluctuate every few seconds in line with what's going on in the middle.

Team to Score Most Sixes/Fours

If you follow cricket regularly, you can see if the power hitters in a team are in red-hot form, or maybe the venue has shorter boundaries (think Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand), perfect for hitting maximums. If you find that a bookmaker has miscalculated the implied probability in the ‘team to hit most 6s/4s' market, that's a value bet right there!

CricketBettingAdvice Final Say

As discussed earlier, a value betting-led strategy can definitely be profitable long-term, but it is difficult to find value in most wagers. That’s because bookmakers run a tight ship and always have experts dedicated to setting outcomes’ odds in such a way that the truism “the house always wins” remains unviolated.

Before we part, check out our comprehensive and insightful cricket betting guides from our team of cricket buffs and enthusiasts for all the necessary resources you need to bet effortlessly on the sport. And, as always, bet responsibly.